Unpersuaded by more than 100,000 pandemic deaths in the United States, 45% of strong conservatives, four in 10 Republicans, and nearly as many evangelical Christians say they’d be unlikely to get vaccinated against the coronavirus, even for free.

 

Overall, 27% of adults in an ABC News/Washington Post poll say they definitely (15%) or probably (12%) would not get the vaccine. Among them, half say they don’t trust vaccines in general, while nearly a quarter don’t think it’s needed in this case.

A plurality definitely would get vaccinated (43%) and 28% say they probably would. The net, 71%, is much higher than the adult vaccination rate for the standard seasonal flu – 45% in the 2018-19 flu season, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (with a wide range by state, from 34 to 56%.) It’s much lower than the 2017 child vaccination rates for polio and measles/mumps/rubella, 93 and 92%, respectively.

A mix of groups express less interest in getting vaccinated – 46% of Republican women, 45% (as noted) very conservative Americans, 40% of Republicans and 37% of evangelical Christians.

Across the spectrum, 90% of Democratic men say they definitely or probably would get the vaccine, as would 81% of Democrats overall, and as many liberals in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.

Interest is higher, although not overwhelmingly high, among seniors – 77% – compared with all other adults, 69%.

The overall result is similar to other recent surveys (by Fox News, ABC/Ipsos, Pew Research and CNN) in which 23 to 33% of adults have said they would not get vaccinated or would not be likely to. By contrast, in a November 2009 ABC/Post survey, many more said they likely would not get vaccinated against the swine flu, 66%.

Experience/Expectations

Experience and expectations play a role in these intentions. For example, Americans living in hard-hit areas are especially likely to say they’d get the vaccine. Eighty-one percent of people in U.S. counties with the most COVID-19 cases say so, compared with 61% of those in counties with the fewest cases.

It’s nearly as high, 78%, among Northeasterners and urban residents, vs. 65% in the South and 63% in rural areas. And among those who report that their lives have been disrupted by the pandemic, three-quarters say they’d get vaccinated. That drops to 55% of those who report little or no disruption.

Willingness also peaks among those most concerned about how the virus may affect them. Among those who are very worried that they or a family member will catch the virus, 85% say they definitely or probably would get vaccinated, as do 84% of those worried about a second wave of infections in the fall. That plummets among others; among those who are “not at all worried” about a second wave, for instance, just 35% say they’d get vaccinated.

Interest also relates to priorities. Among those who say it’s more important to try to stop the spread of the virus, 81% say they’re likely to get vaccinated, compared with 56% of those who say it’s more important to try to restart the economy.

In a statistical analysis called regression, holding demographic and attitudinal factors constant, being black and being a woman are negative predictors of intention to get vaccinated. Positive predictors include being a Democrat, worry about catching the disease or about a second wave, and living in an urban area.

 

 

Source: ABC News

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